Revealing future changes in China’s forest fire under climate change
Brace for China's fiery future! Our study predicts a 60-70% surge in forest fire risk by 2100, with hotspots in the Greater Khingan Mountains and western Yunnan. But there's hope - targeted action can mitigate this climate-driven threat to China's forests.
This study used the Random Forest algorithm to model the future of China's forest fires under different climate change scenarios. The models projected the probability of fire occurrence, intensity levels, and burned areas for the mid-term (2041-2060) and long-term (2081-2100) periods, compared to a 2001-2020 baseline. Key findings include a widespread increase in fire risk, with the greatest growth in the southwestern regions and under the high-emissions SSP5-8.5 scenario. While overall intensity is expected to remain medium-to-low, localized intensification is possible. The study provides critical insights to guide forest management and climate adaptation strategies in China, though limitations include uncertainties in future climate projections and the need for further validation of the models.